Abstract

This paper presents a simple empirical mathematical model which predicts the increase in mortality caused by cigarette smoking. The model considers the introduction of new brands of cigarette in the market and (or) the introduction of new smokers in a given population. The model is used to predict the smoke attributed mortality (SAM) for a period of 20 years, say, using empirical data of Nigeria population. A means through which the government and the policy makers would use to control the SAM is suggested.

Key words: Mortality, empirical mathematical model, smokers, government.