African Journal of
Mathematics and Computer Science Research

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Math. Comput. Sci. Res.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2006-9731
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJMCSR
  • Start Year: 2008
  • Published Articles: 254

Full Length Research Paper

Appraising of Monte Carlo forecast in nonlinear econometric models

    Isaac D. Essi1, E. N. Onwuchekwa2 and Gertrude C. Chikwendu2
    1Statistics and Econometrics Modelling Group, P. O. Box 11518 (Main GPO), Near Rivers State Judiciary, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria. 2Department of Mathematics, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.    
Email: [email protected]

  •  Accepted: 04 June 2010
  •  Published: 31 August 2010

Abstract

 


In the study, Monte Carlo (stochastic) and deterministic forecasts have been carried out. Though, as would be expected, there is reasonable gain in efficiency in the Monte Carlo forecast over the deterministic procedure. The extent of this gain depends on the relative dispersion criterion used.

 

Key words: Monte Carlo forecast, deterministic forecast, efficiency