African Journal of
Marketing Management

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Mark. Manage.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2141-2421
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJMM
  • Start Year: 2009
  • Published Articles: 156

Full Length Research Paper

Customer base management in a prepaid mobile market: Usage risk and usage opportunity model

Adeolu O. Dairo
  • Adeolu O. Dairo
  • Etisalat Nigeria, Lagos, Nigeria.
  • Google Scholar

  •  Received: 30 January 2015
  •  Accepted: 19 March 2015
  •  Published: 31 March 2015


One of the major challenges of mobile operators in a fierce competitive and multi-simming mobile market is how to gain share of wallet and grow both value and market share. This is because a prepaid customer makes a daily decision on when to recharge, which of the SIMs to recharge and what to do with the recharge. Hence, operators are faced with dwindling revenue as daily recharges and usages are impacted by customers’ behavior. In this paper, we develop a model which can identify irrational usage behavior within the customer base at an individual customer level. Our Usage Risk and Usage Opportunity (UR/UO) model captures all the usage related behavior within the customer base and enables an immediate intervention by the mobile operator to leverage on the opportunities to increase revenue and mitigate the usage risk. We applied the model on a robust sample size of prepaid customer base and model the customer’s usage along the grower, decliner, flat, stopper and new users of all products and services available in the offer portfolio. Opportunities are identified, quantified and prioritized across all service portfolios for a one to one marketing intervention.


Key words: UR/UO, usage opportunity, usage risk, prepaid, potential revenue, multi-simming.