Abstract

Over time, the exchange rate has shown instability in the Nigerian economy, despite the implementation of stabilization policies by successive administrations. This instability has, in turn, influenced the pricing of food items in the nation. This research employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on food price inflation in Nigeria, utilizing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2021. The results from the bounds testing for co-integration reveal a sustained connection between exchange rate, food inflation, food production, money supply, and lending interest rate. Both in the short and long term, a notable positive correlation exists between exchange rate volatility and food price inflation. While food production demonstrates a negative relationship; money supply and lending interest rate exhibit positive associations with food price inflation. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Nigerian government amplifies its fiscal expenditures to stimulate domestic investment and production. Furthermore, implementing export-oriented strategies, including offering tax incentives to exporting enterprises, could enhance the export of locally produced goods. This, in turn, might augment foreign reserves and potentially lead to an appreciation of the national currency, the Naira.

Key words: Food price inflation, exchange rate, food production, money supply, lending interest rate.