International Journal of
Physical Sciences

  • Abbreviation: Int. J. Phys. Sci.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1992-1950
  • DOI: 10.5897/IJPS
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 2570

Full Length Research Paper

Markov chain model for the dynamics of cooking fuel usage: Transition matrix estimation and forecasting

Garba S. Adamu
  • Garba S. Adamu
  • Department of Mathematics, Waziri Umaru Federal Polytechnic, Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria
  • Google Scholar
Danbaba A
  • Danbaba A
  • Department of Mathematics, Waziri Umaru Federal Polytechnic, Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria
  • Google Scholar


  •  Received: 12 March 2014
  •  Accepted: 28 May 2014
  •  Published: 16 June 2014

Abstract

Markov chain models are valuable tools for modeling data that vary over time. They are suitable models to use when modeling the transitions of variables between discrete states over time. In this paper, Markov chain model was applied to the data obtained from 300 households living in the headquarters of three Local Governments (Argungu, Arewa, and Augie) of Kebbi State, Nigeria. The data was information concerning the main source of fuel for cooking used by each of the households. The types of fuels were; fuel-wood, gas, kerosene and electricity. The initial distribution of the households was obtained based on the information in December, 2010 which was used as a baseline. Thereafter, the subsequent data for 2011, 2012 and 2013 were labeled as Periods 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Using this procedure, a transition matrix for the households was obtained and analyzed using Markov chain model. The model was implemented using R-statistical software version 3.0.2. The results obtained indicate a high probability of increase in the use of wood as fuel for cooking by the households. The probability of using other alternative fuels diminishes over time.  

 

Key words: Households, cooking fuel, Markov chains, transition probability.