Abstract

In this paper a logistic regression model is developed and used to predict the probability of accidents occurring in mines and to estimate the occurrence of accidents due to machines and falling rocks. We designed a questionnaire and conducted interviews among workers in the mines of Burgersfort area in the Limpopo Province in South Africa. A total of 372 people responded of which 29% were accident victims. From the primary data that was collected, the independent variables were accident victims due to machines and accident victims due to falling rocks. These independent variables were significant to enter the model to predict the occurrence of accidents in the mines. Empirical results show that most accidents in the mines occur due to conduct with machines and falling rocks. The results also show that falling rocks in the mines is the most cause of accidents. Awareness campaign programs should be carried out so as to educate miners on the major causes of accidents in the mines and how to prevent them.

Key words: Logistic regression, mine accidents, safety, falling rocks.