Abstract

Guided by the principle of leaving no one behind by improving equitable access and use of new and existing vaccines, the Immunization Agenda 2030 aims, among other things, to halve the incidence of “zero-dose” at the national level. This study aimed at studying the tends of the prevalence of "zero-dose" children from 2000 to 2017 and making predictions for 2030. The study consisted of secondary data analyses from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Togo. The study population consisted of children aged 12-23 months surveyed during MICS2 in 2000, MICS3 in 2006, MICS4 in 2010 and MICS6 in 2017. The dependent variable was the “zero-dose” vaccination status (1=Yes vs 0=No). The explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household and environment. The study generated the overall annual percentage changes (APC) and by the independent variables. As a result, the prevalence of children with "zero-dose" expected for 2030 was estimated using Excel 2013 and Stata 16.0 software. In total, 636, 864, 916 and 952 children aged 12-23 months were included for MICS2, MICS3, MICS4 and MICS7, respectively. The prevalence of “zero-dose” children decreased from 37.15% in 2000 to 31.72% in 2006, then 30.10% in 2010 and 26.86% in 2017, with an overall APC= - 1.89%. The highest relative annual decrease was from 2000 to 2006. If the historical rate of decrease remains unchanged, we predict that percentage of “zero-dose” children aged 12-23 months will be 20.96% in 2030, with a decrease of 22% compared to 2017, against a target of 50%. We suggest that strengthening strategies to increase full immunization coverage of children will contribute to reducing the percentage of zero dose children. A prerequisite will be a better understanding of the predictors of the “zero-dose” phenomenon in children.

Key words: Vaccination, “zero-dose”, children, trend, prediction, MICS, Togo.