Abstract

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 and 18 are found to be involved in 80% of anal cancers. Two vaccines against HPV infections are currently available, and vaccination policies aim to decrease mainly, incidence of cervical cancers. Moreover, an impact of HPV vaccination on the incidence of anal cancer can also be expected. Our aim was to assess the potential benefits of HPV vaccination on the occurrence of female anal cancer in France. We developed a dynamic model for the heterosexual transmission of HPV and its progression to anal cancer in women. The model was calibrated using French data of anal cancer incidence. Considering vaccine coverage observed at the launch of vaccination campaign in France, reductions of 55 and 85% in the incidence of anal cancers due to HPV 16/18 are to be expected in French women 30 and 50 years after vaccine introduction, respectively. In case of a significant decrease in vaccine coverage, a dramatic reduction in the impact of HPV vaccination on female anal cancers would be observed. The number of anal cancer cases in French women is therefore expected to decrease significantly in 30 years, assuming sustained HPV vaccine coverage.

Key words: Dynamic model, human papillomavirus, vaccine, anal cancer.