Abstract

This paper examines the competitiveness of The Gambia agri-food exports from 2012 to 2021 utilizing the revealed comparative advantage index, the Kaplan-Meier survival function, and Cox regression model. The results indicate that thirteen of the twenty-four products have comparative advantages in the global market, while seven of the twenty-four products have comparative advantages in the regional market. In terms of product structure, raw materials are sources of comparative advantage in global trade. While processed products offer comparative advantages in regional trade. In general, global agri-food trade has comparative advantages over regional agri-food trade. However, the duration test indicates that competitive positions are generally declining. Survival chances fell from 96% at the start of the period to 13% at the end, indicating that The Gambia faces fierce competition in global and regional agri-food trade. The hazard regression analysis reveals that inflation and good governance significantly reduce the hazard rate and hence improve the duration of agro-food exports.

Key words: The Gambia, cox regression, agro-food trade, comparative advantage, competitiveness.