Abstract

The major objective of this article was to evaluate the impact of the exchange rate and the world income on the Brazilian agricultural export value. The analyzed period was annual quarters from January of 1980 to September of 2011. The chosen period was due to several turbulence and exchange rate regime changes experienced by the Brazilian economy, as well as the world crisis of 2008. Unitary root test, Johansen's co-integration test, auto-regression vector model, correction error model and answer-impulse function were used in the study. The results indicated that the variables analyzed were co-integrated. The long run real exchange rate and world income elasticities were less than one, that is, relatively inelastic. The estimated coefficients of the model presented results compatible with the economic theory. The paper concludes that Brazilian agricultural exports respond well to the exchange rate and to world income variations.

Key words: Brazilian agricultural exports, exchange rate, world income, co-integration, auto-regression vector model.