Abstract

The cassava green mite, Mononychellus tanajoa, has been recently recorded as a quarantine pest in Hainan, China. It heavily damaged cassava growth and has caused serious economic losses in some main cassava production areas. In order to effectively monitor and manage this pest, it is necessary to investigate its potential geographical distribution worldwide. In this study, we used the ecological niche models, maximum entropy (Maxent), based on the biological data and known distribution of M. tanajoa, and meteorological data from 1950 to 2000 years in WorldClim to predict the potential geographical distribution of M. tanajoa. The results suggested that the suitable areas for cassava green mite infestations were mainly restricted to west Hainan (Danzhou, western Changjiang, western Dongfang, and southeast Ledong), north Hainan (Lingao, eastern Chenmai and northern Haikou), east Hainan (northern Lingshui and southern Wanning) and south Hainan (southern Sanya). In addition, some counties of eastern Hainan were predicted to have low suitability or unsuitable areas (e.g. Wenchang and Qionghai). A jackknife test in Maxent showed that the temperature annual range was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of M. tanajoa. Consequently, the study suggests several reasonable regulations and management strategies for avoiding the introduction or invasion of this high-risk cassava pest to these potentially suitable areas.

Key words: Mononychellus tanajoa, potential geographic distribution, maximum entropy (Maxent), ArcGIS, Hainan.