Abstract

Climate change is likely to impact every sector including agriculture. To understand the impact on agricultural production, future climate change projections are imperative, but these are uncertain. Quantifying uncertainties in the projection of future climate has been identified as critical research need in impact studies. So, a study was carried out at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu to quantify the uncertainty in seasonal climate under A1B scenario and the results suggested that solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity had either no consistent increase or decrease in the PRECIS ensembles and RegCM4 regional climate models studied. Maximum temperature and minimum temperature had definite increase adding confidence to the range predicted. The information about rainfall was consistent for North East Monsoon (NEM), which showed an increasing trend.

Key words: Uncertainty, seasonal climate, A1B scenario, Tamil Nadu.