Abstract

Path selection problems for grain emergency are uncertainties. According to unascertained theory, the opinions of experts in related fields can be unascertained number, as well as the definition of mathematical expectation to rationally integrate. A new model and the algorithm for path choosing is proposed based on minimum risk in the process of grain emergency transportation. First of all, by the estimated time of each path, several expert advice unascertained number available. Then, based on unascertained number of addition and multiplication rules, comprehensive expert advice you unascertained number can be calculated. Then again, the unascertained number of expectations and credibility can be calculated. Finally, the expectations of unascertained numbers add up, and the estimated time of the known path, thereby minimizing the risk of the shortest path can be calculated. Experimental data show that the proposed model has a certain rationality and effectiveness.

Key words: Unascertained number, grain emergency, risk