African Journal of
Agricultural Research

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Agric. Res.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1991-637X
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJAR
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 6754

Article in Press

Energy Demand Forecast for Turkish Agriculture Sector

Mehmet Arif Åžanhinl

  •  Received: 24 October 2018
  •  Accepted: 29 November 2018
Agriculture sector’s share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is steadily decreasing in Turkey. According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s database, agriculture sector shares in GDP 6.2 percent in 2016 and percentage change compared to same period in previous year -0.1 percent. Agriculture sector shares in GDP 6.1 percent in 2017 and percentage change compared to same period in previous year 17.2 percent. Gross domestic product increased by 5.2% compared with the same quarter of the previous year in the second quarter of 2018. When the activities which constitute gross domestic product were analyzed the total value added decreased by 1.5% in the agricultural sector compared with the same quarter of the previous year in the chained linked volume index. Due to the fact that, Turkey is a importing energy, we must determine the energy needs in the Turkish agricultural sector. In this study, consumed energy data in agriculture was used between 1972 and 2015 years. It was taken from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Line trend model was used to energy trend in the econometric analysis of this study. In addition, agricultural gross domestic product with fixed prices and the energy consumed in agriculture (EC) have been investigated by Granger causality. Granger causality analysis results show that one-way causality relation at 5% level of significance towards GDP denoted EC was detected.

Keywords: Agriculture, Energy, Granger causality, Cointegration test.