African Journal of
Agricultural Research

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Agric. Res.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1991-637X
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJAR
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 6848

Article in Press

Estimating and forecasting red meat consumption and production in Saudi Arabia during 2022-2030

Emad S. Aljohani

  •  Received: 12 February 2024
  •  Accepted: 14 May 2024
The study aims to predict domestic consumption and the production of three meat species (cattle, goats, and sheep) between 2022 and 2030. All series data are stationary at the first difference. The non-intercept and trend model, using income per capita as an exogenous variable, is the best model for predicting domestic meat consumption. Furthermore, the model with an intercept and trend is the best predictor of meat output for the three types. The predicted value of production for cattle and sheep seems to have fallen throughout the forecast period; conversely, it appears to have increased for goats. On the other hand, cattle and sheep increased in domestic consumption, whereas goats decreased over the estimation period.

Keywords: Animal production, Animal consumption, Forecasting of red meats, Vector Autoregressive VAR(p) Model, Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variable VARX(p) Model, unit root test, ?ADF?n.