Abstract

Dialium guineense is a multipurpose species useful in many respects. It is used in agroforestry and the trade of most of its organs is source of income for rural populations. Despite the high interests of this species to populations, we do not know much about how its spatial distribution could be impacted by climate change and which strategies to implement for its sustainable use and conservation. In order to overcome these challenges, MaxEnt was used to model the ecological niche of D. guineense and different decision thresholds were used to interpret and classify the outputs. Climate will impact the distribution of D. guineense. Indeed under Africlim rcp 4.5 horizon 2055, the predicted stable areas of species distribution will be about 73% of West Africa when the threshold of the minimum training presence is considered and will decrease to 12% when the threshold of the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity is considered. Under Africlim 8.5 horizon 2055, the corresponding values for the stable areas of the species are, respectively 70 and 8% of the study area. In comparison with the global results of West Africa, in Benin, D. guineense will be less threatened by climate change. As strategies for sustainable use and conservation of the species, growing and introducing it in its favorable areas to account for its absence or low densities, is recommended. Also, building capacities to the users of the species so that they can grow it on their farms is recommended.

Key words: Dialium guineense, ecological niche modeling, biodiversity conservation.