Abstract

This research used FAO statistical data to test the causality between production, area and yield for Sudan’s three major food crops; sorghum, wheat and millet. Results indicated a sizable gap in yield between Sudan and some selected top producing countries for the selected crops. Two-way causality was observed from production to area and vice versa for sorghum crops, accentuating horizontal expansion, while the lack of causality observed from yield to output omitted the impact of vertical expansion. The non existence of any causality for wheat crops indicates the exclusion of both vertical and horizontal expansion, a result that could be explained by the unsuitability of the Sudanese climate for wheat growth. Causality results for the millet crop suggest the absence of causality between production, area and yield in all directions, which can be attributed to low yield, which is itself due to the lack of recommended technical packages required for enhanced production. The research recommends emphasis on vertical expansion to develop plans for sustainable agriculture in Sudan. Further recommendations focus on upgrading the efficiency of current agricultural production systems through the application of appropriate technological packages. Regarding the wheat crop, the study recommends in-depth integrated research on comparative advantage, developing heat-tolerant varieties and the economic feasibility of growing wheat in Sudan.

Key words: Cereals, climate change, yield gap, technological packages, sustainable agriculture, final prediction error.