African Journal of
Agricultural Research

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Agric. Res.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1991-637X
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJAR
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 6842

Full Length Research Paper

Studying the volatility effect of agricultural exports on agriculture share of GDP: The case of Egypt

Osama Ahmed
  • Osama Ahmed
  • Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt.
  • Google Scholar
Walid Sallam
  • Walid Sallam
  • Agricultural Markets Department , Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany.
  • Google Scholar

  •  Received: 05 November 2016
  •  Accepted: 21 November 2016
  •  Published: 22 February 2018


This article aims to examine the long and short run relationship between agricultural exports and agriculture share of GDP. Links between series considered are assessed by co-integration analysis using Johansen co-integration technique and ECM-GARCH. Results indicate a positive link in the short and long term between agricultural exports and agriculture share of GDP, as well as co-integration between the pairs of series used. Also it can be found that increases in agricultural exports were followed by increases in agriculture share of GDP. Agriculture exports and agriculture share of GDP elasticities are 0.62. The past shocks and agricultural exports increased agriculture share of GDP volatility.

Key word:  Agricultural exports, agricultural economic growth, co-integration analysis, Johansen co-integration, ECM-GARCH.