Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Fever, headaches, muscle pain, and nausea are the most common symptoms. It has become a public health problem, highlighting the need to identify and understand the risk factors associated with this disease. Recent studies using cartography techniques in certain areas (South Asia, America, South Africa, and Australia) have shown that the climatic conditions in these environments favor increase dengue cases. However, the link between climate and dengue is not extensively documented in Senegal. Therefore, we explored certain climatic variables such as temperature, humidity, and cumulative rainfall at the spatiotemporal scale to understand their impact on this disease. We utilized a generalized linear model (Poisson) and the "relative Vectorial capacity" (rVc) model. The results of this study demonstrated that in Senegal, the peak of dengue cases occurred from 1994 to 2014. The results of the dengue rVc model indicated that the Eastern and Northeastern regions of the country, as well as some central regions, particularly Diourbel, are more exposed to dengue due to a very high temperature in these areas. Projections show that dengue could spread to the Southern regions of the country. Conversely, excessively high temperatures combined with a probable decrease in future rainfall, particularly under the extreme scenario (SSP585), could negatively impact the survival pattern of adult mosquitoes. This would reduce in disease transmission in the hottest regions, such as the Eastern part of Senegal. The findings of this study could lead to the development of community-based early warning systems for dengue and specific adaptation strategies against this disease in Senegal.

Keywords: Climate, Dengue, Modeling, Seasonality, Senegal