Abstract
The aim of this research is to examine the impact of climate change in maize farmers’ livelihood in Zambezi region, Namibia and benefit of adaptation. Trade-off analysis–multidimensional (TOA-MD) model was presented as a method for evaluation with a combination of simulated baseline production and future simulated yield using Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) in maize production system, under five different climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Even though the magnitude and the impact of different GCMs differs, the projections shows to have a negative economic impact with the highest going up to 76% and lowest to be around 46% loss without any adaption strategies in the Zambezi region. Adaptation strategies and some policy options were tested. The analysis suggests that the introduction of an irrigation system may be sufficient to offset the negative effects of climate change. Since various assumptions and uncertainties are associated with using the proposed approach and results should be interpreted with caution. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this study shows the potential to yield new insights into the way that realistic adaptation strategies could improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. To safeguard the limited productive assets of rural Namibian’s, the study suggested policy aim to target pro-poor disaster management and other adoption mechanism is very important. Apart from protecting productive resources of the rural population, policy should target the diversification of the rural economic environment and strengthen rural-urban linkages.
Key words: Climate change, trade-off analysis–multidimensional (TOA-MD), maize, Namibia, Zambezi.
